AGP Executive Report
Last update: 9 hours agoCentral Bank Watch: Aruba’s economy is still growing, but the Central Bank warns growth should cool to 3.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, with inflation rising to 2.4% in 2026—oil and geopolitics are the big swing factors. Energy Risk: In a harsher scenario where oil stays at May 2026 peaks through late 2027, inflation could jump to 4.9% and GDP growth could fall to 0.4% in 2027. Tourism & Housing Pressure: The shift toward alternative stays is reshaping tourism (39.1% of visitor nights in 2025), while the ABC birdlife case is back in focus: the court granted a five-week pause but ordered a constructive meeting push. Policy & Labor: The Central Bank says legalizing about 6,000 undocumented workers could add tax revenue, but healthcare and housing demand may rise too. Local Business & Retail: ZARA opened at Sambil Curaçao, a retail milestone for the island. Aviation & Trade: Aruba and San Marino signed a framework for oversight of San Marino-registered aircraft operated under Aruba certificates. Shipping Compliance: Bunker suppliers face tougher due-diligence as fraudulent sanctions checks and fake ship registry signals keep spreading.
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